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Finally, thinking about China’s two roads to hegemony clarifies how the U.S.-China competition will be both similar to and different from the Cold War. China may well be less capable of providing global public goods than the United States, both because it is less powerful and because its authoritarian political system makes it harder to exercise the comparatively enlightened, positive-sum leadership that has distinguished U.S. primacy. Special Report: A Collapsing Economy and a Family Feud Pile Pressure on Assad in Syria

By Hal Brands and Jake Sullivan | May 22, 2020. This gulf between Beijing’s political values and those of the world’s democracies means that many countries in Europe and beyond start from a position of unease about China’s growing role in global affairs.

But he has shown far less interest in meeting the global challenge posed by China—at least in a coherent way. Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

International Community Welcomes UAE-Israel Agreement And the question of what road China will take has profound implications for American strategists—and, ultimately, the rest of the world.China’s first home-built aircraft carrier sets out for sea trials in Dalian, China, on May 13, 2018.

There are presumably many others in which the implicit threat of sanctions causes countries or corporations to do Beijing’s work for it. But in any of these cases, Beijing would be making a deliberate choice to seek key objectives through the use of coercion or force, with the knowledge that a larger conflict is a real possibility. As China has become more geopolitically ambitious, its leaders have recognized that such criticism also stands in the way of Beijing gaining the global prestige and deference it desires.The party has thus emphasized the importance of “discourse power” in international relations—the idea, as Nadege Rolland of the National Bureau of Asian Research writes, that “whoever rules the words rules the world.” And as Beijing’s coercive leverage has grown with its economic power, the CCP has increasingly used that leverage to constrain what people who live far beyond China’s borders can and cannot saw about how the government runs its affairs.In June, Zoom Video Communications Inc. censored — reportedly at the request of Chinese authorities — online discussions of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989.
This is particularly the case here because it must be apparent to Beijing by now that it will be far harder for China to subdue its regional periphery than it was for the United States.The United States never faced a Japan—a significant regional power allied to an even greater power—in its own hemisphere, and getting beyond the first island chain means getting beyond Japan.

(AP Photo/Joe Mwihia)

Some leading U.S. defense analysts have These investments and innovations are indeed critical.

(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
What if, instead of focusing on regional hegemony before turning to consider global hegemony, China approaches things the other way around? The more united a front the democracies present, the less ability Beijing will have to play divide-and-conquer. After decades of tacitly free-riding on America’s global power-projection capabilities, however, Beijing now is seeking the capabilities that will allow it to project its own military power well outside its regional neighborhood. During the Cold War, US policymakers worried that crises over Berlin or Cuba could get out of control. For years, Beijing has withheld or threatened to withhold trade, investment and other economic ties to punish countries — in Oceania, Scandinavia and beyond — that dare to critique its human-rights violations or foreign policy misconduct.These are just the instances in which Beijing has had to resort to outright coercion to suppress or punish international speech it considers offensive. Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. So far, in fact, Beijing’s efforts at seduction and coercion have been partially successful in shifting the geopolitical orientation of the Philippines and Thailand, but they have backfired in dealing with Australia and Japan. (AP Photo/Joe Mwihia)Amedee Perrein, French manager at HADN (horticulture and agriculture trade), poses next to Silphium perfoliatum (cup plant) flowering plants in a field near Dompaire, eastern France, on August 12, 2020. In traveling this second road, China would seek to replicate these factors.This would start with the widening ambition of the Belt Road Initiative across Eurasia and Africa. (AP Photo/Joe Mwihia) Amedee Perrein, French manager at HADN (horticulture and agriculture trade), poses next to Silphium perfoliatum (cup plant) flowering plants in a field near Dompaire, eastern France, on August 12, 2020. But in that case and every other case, the crisis was defused and the superpowers drew back, precisely because they didn’t believe that the stakes merited a nuclear bloodbath.Accidental war also seems unlikely today. Chinese government agents have worked to prevent Uighurs in Europe from raising awareness of the regime’s industrial-scale repression in Xinjiang.

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